2.3 Mathematical model
Course subject(s)
2. Improving the model
To recapitulate, the new problem is:
How long does it take for the rainbowfish population to get into its equilibrium state?
Earlier modelling cycles have resulted in the following information:
- P(t) is the number of rainbowfish in the aquarium, with t in days.
- We start with 30 fish. The unbounded birth rate of the fish is b=0.7 per day.
- The death rate is ignored: d≈0.
- The tank can sustain a population of 750 rainbowfish.
- Each day 20 fish are sold.
The resulting initial value problem is:
The differential equation has two equilibrium solutions, namely an unstable one of approximately 29.75 and a stable one of approximately 720.25. The second one is relevant for the new problem.
How long does it take to reach that equilibrium? Mathematically, the answer is: “infinitely long” ;-). The nearer P gets to the equilibrium, the lower the value of the derivative (but it stays positive), so the growth will keep slowing down, never reaching zero growth, and P will never reach its equilibrium value.
Luckily, living fish come in units, so we rephrase the question:
How long does it take for the rainbowfish population to reach the last integer before the mathematical equilibrium?
This means that we want to find time teq such that P(teq)=720.
The direction field of P and some possible solutions are shown below.
As you can see, many solutions are possible, each of which reaches 720 at a different time. In an exercise of § 2.1 you have estimated the value of teq by imagining one of the solution curves. As you can see, it is rather easy to guess how quickly P rises in the middle. It is much more difficult to guess how long the beginning and the end phase take.
On the following pages, you will learn a method to approximate the solutions in a computer simulation, and then you can estimate much more precisely how long everything will take.
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