2.7.1 Back to the watermelons
Course subject(s)
Module 2. Calibration and Information score
You might consider that it is quite intuitive to evaluate which expert is more informative based on the Dutch eating habits examples.
Well, let’s see!
Consider again the question about the watermelon: What is the percentage of water in watermelon?
“Watermelons” by Ahmad is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0
Suppose other two experts, Expert C and Expert D provide their assessments.
| Expert | 5% | 50% | 95% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert C | 80 | 90 | 99 |
| Expert D | 75 | 95 | 99 |
Note how different the information scores are of the two experts when different intrinsic ranges are considered!
It’s good to remember that the larger the intrinsic range, the more informative expert’s assessments can be.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.