2.4.1 Perfect calibration score
Perfect calibration score
The highest possible calibration score is 1, when the expert is most statistically accurate.
Let’s find out when does this happen!
You can see that in order for an expert to be statistically accurate, it is expected that sometimes he overshoots and sometimes undershoots.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.