Recall the fictional example of eating habits among Dutch adults.

Consider the following table where 3 experts have given their 5%, 50% and 95% quantiles for 5 different questions.

A Dutch supermarket is interested in eating habits among Dutch adults.
For this purpose, three experts have been consulted. First, these experts need to be evaluated based on five calibration questions.

1) What percentage of Dutch adults eats fruit on a daily basis?
2) What percentage of Dutch adults eats fast food less than once a month?
3) Consider the caloric consumption of Dutch adults ten years ago. What is the caloric consumption today, compared to ten years ago? (here, 100% means there was no change)
4) How many liters of milk are consumed on a yearly basis by the average Dutch adult?
5) How many kilos of meat does the average adult consume in six months time?

Question	Realization	Expert 1 5%   50%  95%	Expert 2 5%   50%  95%	Expert 3 5%   50%  95%
1	50	44    46    49	30    40    55	38    47    55
2	7	9    12    15	1    15    20	2     8     17
3	108	102    106    110	60    80    95	91    99    106
4	66	55    59    64	53    70    80	58   68    75
5	24	28    31    35	10    19    30	26    35    43

Suppose the purpose of using structured expert judgment are the prediction of future eating habits among Dutch adults, say in 2025. And suppose that the interest is in the following questions of interest

6) What percentage of Dutch adults will eat fruit on a daily basis by 2025?
7) How many liters of milk will be consumed on a yearly basis by the average Dutch adult in 2025?

Question	Realization	Expert 1 5%  50%  95%	Expert 2 5%  50% 95%	Expert 3 5%  50%  95%
6		61   68   75	45    55    70	43    52    63
7		67   71   80	50    61    68	55    65    73

You can download the Excalibur files from here.

Note that you need both the .dtt file, as well as the .rls file (which actually contains the realization).

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