Home Courses Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment Course materials Readings 4.3.1 Experts in Dutch weather

4.3.1 Experts in Dutch weather

Course subject(s) Module 4. Data analysis using Excalibur and Validation

“Typical Dutch” by Marco Nedermeijer is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Everyone in the Netherlands is an expert at Dutch weather!

At least that’s the general claim :).

We have decided to investigate this claim and also provide some weather predictions with the help of 5 MSc students at TU Delft.

The experts answered 10 calibration questions and 5 questions of interest at the beginning of December 2015.

Here is the list of questions (note that all questions refer to the Netherlands)

Calibration questions

  1. Based on data collected from August 1999 until October 2015, the average wind speed is 66 km/h.
  2. What was the maximum wind speed (km/h) recorded on November 29th 2015?
  3. Before 2000, the largest total year rainfall was registered in 1998 and was 1239,6 mm.
  4. What is the largest total year rainfall registered after 2000?
  5. The 2014 is known to be the warmest year, since 1901, with an average of 11.71C .
  6. How many days in 2014 were registered with the maximum temperature (in history)?
  7. How many days of snow were there registered in 2010?
  8. What is the percentage of days with at least 1 mm rainfall in 2014?
  9. The largest temperature after 2000 registered at de Bilt was on 19 July 2006. What was the temperature recorded?
  10. What was the average year temperature in 2013?
  11. How many days with maximum temperatures below 0C (ijsdagen) were registered in 2010?
  12. In how many months in 2015 was the average temperature higher than in 2014 (the warmest year since 1901)?
  13. A heavy storm (zware storm) is registered when the wind speed hourly average is at least 100 km/h. There were 8 heavy storms registered between 1950 and 2000. How many heavy storms were registered after 2000?

Questions of interest

  1. What will be the monthly average temperature in December 2015?
  2. How many days with 50 mm/day or more rainfall will there be in 2016?
  3. What will be the percentage of days with snow registered in December 2015?
  4. How many days with maximum temperature > 20C will be registered in 2016?
  5. In what year will the next heavy storm (zware storm) occur?  
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.
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