7.5.1 Learn more

Course subject(s) Module 7. Extra material

You were briefly introduced to extra methods which can make use of expert opinion in different settings. The topics have been researched in a number of publications, which are listed below.

“reading” by Terry Freedman is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Eliciting probabilities


  • Cooke, R. (1991). Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford University Press on Demand.
  • Hanea, A. M., and G. F. Nane. “Calibrating experts’ probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions.” Safety Science 118 (2019): 763-771.
  • Bhola, B., R. M. Cooke, H. G. Blaauw, and M. Kok. “Expert opinion in project management.” European journal of operational research 57, no. 1 (1992): 24-31.

Dependence elicitation

  • Werner, Christoph, Tim Bedford, Roger M. Cooke, Anca M. Hanea, and Oswaldo Morales-Napoles. “Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions.” European Journal of Operational Research 258, no. 3 (2017): 801-819.
  • Morales-Nápoles, O., Hanea, A. M., & Worm, D. T. H. (2013). Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates. In ESREL 2013: Proceedings of the 22nd European Safety and Reliability Conference” Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon”, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 29 september-2 oktober 2013. CRC Press/Balkema-Taylor & Francis Group.

Preference elicitation

  • Neslo, R., Micheli, F., Kappel, C. V., Selkoe, K. A., Halpern, B. S., & Cooke, R. M. (2008). Modeling stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion. In Real-Time and Deliberative Decision Making (pp. 265-284). Springer, Dordrecht.
  • Neslo, R. E. J., & Cooke, R. M. (2011). Modeling and validating stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry27(2), 115-130.
  • Mazzuchi, T. A., Linzey, W. G., & Bruning, A. (2008). A paired comparison experiment for gathering expert judgment for an aircraft wiring risk assessment. Reliability Engineering & System Safety93(5), 722-731.
  • Zuomin, M. D. Y. W. W. (2005). Statistical validation and criterion for paired comparison data in sound quality evaluation [J]. Acta Acustica5.
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.
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