2.6.3 Computing the information score for experts
We saw how the information score is computed for each question.
For the example of the Dutch eating habits, we obtain the following results.
|Question||Expert 1||Expert 2||Expert 3|
Note that the calculations for the intrinsic range of Question 2 are the following:
– the overshoot is k*(U-L)=0.1*19=1.9
Extending the interval with the overshoot would lead to a negative lower bound. Nonetheless, the question is about the percentage of Dutch adults eating fast food less than once a month. So a negative % doesn’t make too much sense.
For this reason, the intrinsic range [L*,U*]=[0,21.9] has been chosen.
In order to obtain an overall score that describes how informative expert’s assessments are, we average the information scores for all questions.
So, for the 5 questions, the information score of each expert is
|Expert 1||Expert 2||Expert 3|
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.