3.4.3 PWDM and EWDM

Course subject(s) Module 3. Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker

Consider our example about Dutch eating habits and recall the two questions of interest. Suppose the purpose of using structured expert judgment are the prediction of future eating habits among Dutch adults, say in 2025. And suppose that the interest is in the following questions of interest:

6) What percentage of Dutch adults will eat fruit on a daily basis by 2025?
7) How many liters of milk will be consumed on a yearly basis by the average Dutch adult in 2025?

Note that, as beforehand, the data are purely fictional.

Question Realization Expert 1

5% 50% 95%

Expert 2

5% 50% 95%

Expert 3

5% 50% 95%

6 61 68 75 45 55 70 43 52 63
7 67 71 80 50 61 68 55 65 73

Recall that the normalized weights of the three experts, based on the calibration and the information score are: 0.009, 0.417 and 0.574.

Below you can see the plots of the Equal Weight Decision Maker (EWDM) and the Performance-based Decision Maker (PWDM) distributions along with the experts’ distributions for Question 6.

Which is which?

CDFs of the experts, PWDM and EWDM for question 6

The PDFs of the experts, PWDM and EWDM for question 6 are given below

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/courses/decision-making-under-uncertainty-introduction-to-structured-expert-judgment//.
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