Exploring the future: Scenario analysis

Course subject(s) 4. Exploring the future: Scenario analysis

Exploring the future: Scenario analysis

The long-term success of policy-making depends, in part, on how a system and actors respond to future changes in the system environment. We do not and cannot know that future. But we can use methods to better understand it. When writing an issue paper, you are advised to explore the future with a scenario analysis method. You use your system diagram as a starting point. The video clips in this tutorial explain the rationale of the method and explain the steps to execute it. You are able to conduct your own scenario analysis if you have watched clips 1 and 2.  Watch clips 3 and 4 also for a demonstration and practical tips.

Additional Resources

  • Course Book “Policy Analysis of Multi-Actor Systems” (Not online see course readings!) Chapter 5: Exploring the Future
  • The future. Six drivers of global change. Vice-president Al Gore investigated what driving forces will determine our future. Long list of references (150 p.)
  • Shell Scenarios. The multinational company Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years now to improve their strategic decisions. These are available on this page of the company website.
  • Delphi method. The Delphi method is explained in brief in the course book, Chapter 5. Below is a YouTube video with an infographic about the method , animated by Mike Travis.

A final recommended resource is an interview with Peter Schwarz, who has made a large contribution to developing the scenario analysis. The link illustrates how scenario writers think. And the YouTube video Delphi method.

Below are the tutorial videos of this module, as well as the slides of these tutorials.

Why future exploration and scenario analysis?

This clip shows how the success of long-term policies may depend on  future developments. What methods can be used to explore the future and prevent policy failure?  Forecasting methods may be inadequate at times. The scenario analysis method uncovers critical uncertainties about the future and  creates insight in  how to anticipate or deal with such uncertainties. The scenario analysis method is introduced briefly.

Why future exploration and scenario analysis?

Main steps in developing contextual scenarios

This videoclip explains the added value of a contextual scenario analysis. It explains the main steps of the scenario analysis method, the concepts it uses  and the presumptions that this method is based on.  When you have watched this clip, you know enough to get started with the assignment and make your own scenario analysis.

Main steps in developing contextual scenarios

Example: steps 1-3

A scenario analysis is a structured, step-by-step method. This clip demonstrates how the first three steps should be carried out: defining the key question, determination of the contextual factors and identification of the related driving forces. Another clip shows the remaining four steps. The  example in both clips explores the future system environment of a large electricity supply system.

Example: steps 1-3

Example: steps 4-7

A scenario analysis is a structured method. This clip  demonstrates steps 4-7:  classification of driving forces, choosing a scenario logic, naming and writing scenario’s, and evaluation of the key question with the scenario’s. The preceding three steps are demonstrated in the previous videoclip in this tutorial.

The  example in both clips explores the future system environment of a large electricity supply system.

Example: steps 4-7

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Problem Structuring Methods by TU Delft OpenCourseWare is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
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